By Nicos Christodoulakis
This ebook presents a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the industrial charges linked to civil wars. the writer develops transformed Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield life like representations of conflict strategies, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps. the commercial expenditures of civil wars are evaluated with the aid of substitute equipment: to begin with, the writer employs a creation functionality to figure out how the destruction of human and actual capital shares undermines financial development within the medium time period. Secondly, he develops an artificial regulate procedure, the place the fee is received because the divergence of exact financial job from a hypothetical course within the absence of civil conflict. the variation among the 2 ways offers a sign of the antagonistic externalities impinging upon the economic system within the kind of institutional destruction. by utilizing designated time-series concerning conflict casualties, neighborhood socio-economic signs, and capital inventory destruction in the course of the Greek Civil warfare (1946-1949), a full-scale software of the above framework is gifted and discussed.
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This publication offers a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the commercial expenses linked to civil wars. the writer develops transformed Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield sensible representations of conflict tactics, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps.
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Additional resources for An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949
Greek GDP in 1945 was down by 64 % from its level in 1939, the year before the war started. 6 billion times relative to its pre-war level. Hyperinflation had ruined 1 An analysis of the 1932 crisis in Greece and its dire consequences on the economy is given by Christodoulakis (2013). 2 For an account of police persecutions of republicans and left-wing sympathizers, see Close (1986) and Pelt (2014). 3 As compared to the population the country would have had in the absence of war; see Mazower (1994, p.
On the other hand, the wave of prosecutions created a potential pool for guerrilla recruits, as several would-be suspects opted for joining DAG in the mountains rather than facing court-martial. In the beginning of 1948 it was clear that both the Government and the guerrillas were moving toward a prolonged and deadly confrontation. References Averof-Tositsas E (2010) By fire and axe: Greece 1946–1949 and the precedents. Estia Editions, Athens (in Greek) Bank of Greece (1947) Director’s report for the years 1941–1946.
A high degree of adversity and poor quality of life could possibly lead to social dissatisfaction and political protest. 1. 1. Of the adverse indicators, malaria is strongly and positively correlated with the index of rural population composition. Unemployment and emigration are negatively correlated, probably implying that family ties were stronger in the countryside, by offering some form of land cultivation and, thus, discouraging emigration. Only tuberculosis is found to be negatively correlated with the countryside.
An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949 by Nicos Christodoulakis